# Predict & Profit

> Automated Kalshi weather trading bot using a 62-member HGEFS grand ensemble.

Predict & Profit is an educational software product built by ItsMoreThanSoftware LLC. It provides full Python source code for an algorithmic trading bot that trades weather temperature prediction markets on Kalshi.

## What It Is

The bot combines two weather model ensembles:
- **GFS Physical Ensemble** (31 members): NOAA's Global Forecast System, accessed via the Open-Meteo API. Provides physics-based temperature probability distributions.
- **AIGEFS AI Ensemble** (31 members): NOAA's Project EAGLE AI weather model built on Google DeepMind's GraphCast architecture. Accessed directly from NOAA's AWS S3 bucket as GRIB2 files.

Together these form the **HGEFS 62-member grand ensemble**, which produces a combined probability estimate for temperature outcomes in 14 Kalshi market cities.

## How Trades Are Executed

Every potential trade is scored on four dimensions before execution:
1. **Spread Analysis** (30%): Bid-ask spread tightness
2. **Volume Confirmation** (20%): Minimum trading activity threshold
3. **Order Book Imbalance** (25%): Demand-side pressure
4. **Model Mispricing** (25%): Gap between ensemble probability and market price

Only trades with a composite edge score above threshold are executed. The bot rejects 95%+ of opportunities.

## Product

- **Trading Bot Source Code**: $67 one-time purchase (Gumroad). Full Python source code, 7-day deployment guide, private community access.
- **Ebook**: "Predict & Profit" available on Amazon.

## Key URLs

- Home: https://predictandprofit.io/
- How It Works: https://predictandprofit.io/how-it-works
- Blog: https://predictandprofit.io/blog
- Purchase: https://predictandprofit.gumroad.com/l/predict-and-profit
- Contact: https://predictandprofit.io/#contact
- Privacy Policy: https://predictandprofit.io/privacy
- Terms of Service: https://predictandprofit.io/terms

## Company

ItsMoreThanSoftware LLC
support@predictandprofit.io

## Disclaimer

This software is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute personalized financial advice. Trading prediction markets involves significant risk of loss.