Most weather traders look at a single app icon and guess. We do not guess. The weather bot prices every decision from NOAA's National Blend of Models, the calibrated station-level guidance published for exactly the stations Kalshi settles against, and it declines to trade any market NBM does not cover. The inflation bot applies explicit rules to Cleveland Fed data, an internal nowcast, and optional FRED and BLS inputs.
One calibrated source, cross-checked
0.75
NOAA NBM
Calibrated, bias-corrected station guidance for the exact station Kalshi settles on.
Disagreement check · 0.25 combined
0.07
ECMWF IFS
0.05
GFS
0.05
HRRR
0.04
AIGEFS
0.04
AIFS
No NBM guidance for a market means no trade. Coverage begins at forecast hour 24, so same-day markets are skipped.
NOAA NBM · weight 0.75
Calibrated station guidance
NBM publishes bias-corrected probabilistic temperature guidance, including mean, standard deviation and percentiles, for the individual stations Kalshi settles against. It is the operational product NOAA calibrates against those same observations.
Probability construction
NOAA's own percentiles, interpolated
Probability comes from interpolating the published percentile ladder, with normal tails beyond P10 and P90 and a 1.15 multiplier on sigma, because real temperature outcomes have fatter tails than a Gaussian.
Raw NWP · weight 0.25 combined
GFS, AIGEFS, ECMWF IFS, AIFS, HRRR
Five raw forecast systems keep a minority vote as a disagreement check. They carry real signal, but they are no longer the basis of the decision.
Settlement stations
20 cities, read from Kalshi metadata
Stations come from Kalshi's own series metadata rather than guesswork. Chicago settles on Midway, not O'Hare. Houston settles on Hobby, not Bush. Forecasting the wrong airport is forecasting the wrong contract.
Inflation bot (CPI + PCE)
Verified wired data path
The trading path uses the Cleveland Fed nowcast and an internal weighted nowcast. FRED energy indicators and BLS CPI subcomponents are optional when their free API keys are configured. The BEA helper is not wired into trade decisions.
[ INFO ] Resolving settlement stations from Kalshi series metadata: chi=KMDW hou=KHOU...
[ INFO ] Fetching NBM station guidance (mean, sigma, percentiles) for 20 cities...
[ CALC ] Interpolating published percentiles, normal tails beyond P10/P90, sigma x1.15...
[ INFO ] Cross-checking 5 raw NWP sources at 0.25 combined weight...
[ SKIP ] ticker=KXHIGHCHI reason=no_forecast_available (same-day, NBM coverage starts at F024)
[ GATE ] EDGE_SCORE ticker=KXHIGHTDC spread=0.91 volume=0.88 imbalance=0.76 mispricing=0.85 composite=0.85
[ EXEC ] ELIGIBLE ticker=KXHIGHTDC side=YES price=0.72 edge_score=0.85 → PLACING ORDER
[ INFO ] Scanning remaining tickers... majority rejected (threshold not met).
TRADE GATING
Every potential trade is scored on four dimensions before a single dollar is risked. Only trades that pass all four filters with a composite score above threshold get executed. In practice, the bot rejects 95%+ of opportunities. Patience is the edge.
How tight is the bid-ask spread? Tight spreads mean real liquidity, not phantom orders sitting in an empty book.
Is there actual trading activity, or is this a dead market? The bot requires minimum volume thresholds before entering.
Which side has more demand? If we are buying YES and the order book is stacked with YES bids, the market agrees with us.
How far is the market price from the probability NBM implies? This is the core edge: the gap between what the market thinks and what NOAA's calibrated station guidance says.
Example composite score calculation
spread=0.91 × 0.30 = 0.273
volume=0.88 × 0.20 = 0.176
imbal =0.76 × 0.25 = 0.190
misprice=0.85 × 0.25 = 0.213
─────────
composite = 0.852 ✓ ABOVE THRESHOLD → EXECUTEPRODUCT STATUS
Includes the NBM forecast model, the inflation bot, the visual dashboard, shared account-level risk, confirmed-fill accounting, fee and settlement reconciliation, the guided installer and management CLI, diagnostics, and migration and recovery tooling. The shipped changelog lists the known open issues as well as the fixes. Purchases include six months of updates.
NOAA National Blend of Models, station-level guidance
Calibrated, bias-corrected probabilistic temperature guidance at 0.75 weight. Five raw NWP sources hold the remaining 0.25 as a disagreement check.
Same-day markets are skipped
NBM coverage begins at forecast hour 24. The bot declines to price what it cannot price.
Inflation bot - wired data path
Cleveland Fed nowcast and an internal weighted nowcast, with optional FRED and BLS inputs.
Strike consistency + regime detection
Logical position checks and contradiction logging before new risk is added.
Visual dashboard
Account, trades, positions, model output, risk, reconciliation and system health in one place.
Shared account-level risk
Weather and Inflation trade one Kalshi account under one risk engine, one account snapshot and one reconciliation path.
PostgreSQL-backed persistent state
Trading, risk and dashboard state live in PostgreSQL under a permanent installation root that survives upgrades.