Two automated trading bots for Kalshi. The weather bot reads 164 independent ensemble forecasts before touching a contract. The inflation bot runs 5 signal sources on CPI and PCE markets. Full Python source code included.
POWERED BY INSTITUTIONAL GRADE TECHNOLOGY
THE ENGINE
When 164 independent forecast simulations disagree, the bot stays out. When they converge, the bot executes. No emotion, just probability. Two bots. One for weather, one for inflation. Both powered by the same principle.
TRANSPARENCY
It is the most common question. The answer is simple: prediction market liquidity. Kalshi operates on binary contracts. Other traders executing the same Global Forecast System data models alongside you do not dilute your mathematical edge. We trade the weather, not each other.
This bot trades weather, not stocks. There is no insider information, no alpha decay from sharing. The edge comes from mathematical modeling that most traders cannot build themselves. More users running the same model on Kalshi binary contracts does not move the underlying weather.
THE METHODOLOGY
The weather bot runs every trade through a 164-member grand ensemble combining four independent forecast systems: NOAA GFS (31 members), NOAA AIGEFS (31 members), ECMWF IFS (51 members), and AIFS-ENS. Only when at least 3 of the 4 systems agree does the bot act.
The inflation bot runs five independent signal sources: Cleveland Fed Nowcast, FRED energy signals, BLS CPI subcomponents, BEA PCE data, and a homemade weighted nowcast. When the models disagree with each other by more than 0.15 percentage points, that disagreement is the trade signal.
Learn How It Works →THE UPGRADE
Most of the early losses came from one bad default setting. The original bot had a minimum price of $0.05. That means it was buying penny contracts that needed to hit at near-lottery odds to win. Cheap contracts look appealing because the upside is big. But the win rate is brutal. v2.0 ships with completely different defaults.
v1.0 — Retired
v2.0 — Current
v2.0 live since April 2026. Settlement history updates after each contract expires. We show everything.
[2026-04-18] V2_STRATEGY min_price=0.40 ensembles=4 members=164
[2026-04-18] AGREEMENT_FILTER required=3_of_4 status=ACTIVE
[2026-04-18] EARLY_EXIT threshold=0.70 status=ACTIVE
[2026-04-18] NEXT_SETTLEMENT date=2026-05-13 market=CPI_YOY
[2026-04-18] TRACK_RECORD status=BUILDING_IN_PUBLIC
Next public settlement: May 13, 2026 — April CPI YoY. Bookmark this page.
THE OFFER
Use code BOOKREADER at checkout for 15% off.
$97
GET IN TOUCH
Questions about the bot, the data, or licensing? Send us a message and we will respond within one business day.