Question 1

What is a Kalshi trading bot?

Accepted Answer

Kalshi is a regulated US prediction market where you trade binary contracts on real-world events like weather outcomes. A trading bot automates the process of scanning available contracts, calculating probabilities using weather model data, and placing orders when it finds mispriced contracts. Predict & Profit is an automated Kalshi weather trading bot written in Python.

Question 2

How does GFS ensemble weather data work for trading?

Accepted Answer

The Global Forecast System (GFS) runs 31 slightly different weather simulations to capture uncertainty. Instead of one forecast, you get 31. We compute the probability of each weather outcome (like "will DC hit 55F tomorrow?") by counting how many of the 31 members predict that outcome. If 28 out of 31 members say yes, that is a 90% probability. If the Kalshi market prices it at 75%, we have a 15% edge.

Question 3

What is the HGEFS 62-member ensemble?

Accepted Answer

HGEFS is NOAA's Hybrid Global Ensemble Forecast System, launched December 2025 as part of Project EAGLE. It combines 31 traditional physics-based GFS members with 31 AI-powered AIGEFS members (built on Google DeepMind's GraphCast architecture). The 62-member grand ensemble outperforms both systems individually. Predict & Profit v2.0 uses the full HGEFS ensemble.

Question 4

How do prediction market fees work on Kalshi?

Accepted Answer

Kalshi charges fees on winning trades only. The fee is typically a few cents per contract. When calculating edge, the bot accounts for fees so you only trade when the expected profit after fees is positive. Losing trades cost you the contract price but no additional fee.

Question 5

What programming language is the bot written in?

Accepted Answer

Python 3.12. The source code includes the trading bot, Kalshi API integration with RSA-PSS authentication, PostgreSQL database for trade logging, settlement tracking, and P&L reporting. Everything runs on a standard Linux server or VM.

Question 6

Can multiple people run the same bot without killing the edge?

Accepted Answer

Yes. The bot trades weather, not stocks. There is no insider information and no alpha decay from sharing. The edge comes from mathematical modeling that most traders cannot build themselves. More users running the same model on Kalshi binary contracts does not move the underlying weather.

Question 7

How much money do I need to start?

Accepted Answer

You can start with as little as $10 on Kalshi. The bot is configured with budget limits, maximum cost per trade, and daily loss limits. We run our own bot with about $90 deployed across weather and economic contracts.

Question 8

Is this financial advice?

Accepted Answer

No. Predict & Profit is educational software for data science and research purposes. Trading prediction markets involves significant risk of loss. You are responsible for your own trading decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions