Live Trade Results
Last updated: May 10, 2026. All trades placed autonomously by bot. No manual intervention.
DAILY LIVE FEED
Updated every morning from live database. Last updated: May 13, 2026 at 10:00 AM UTC
WEATHER BOT (v2)
Win Rate
66.7%
Total Trades
6
Total P&L
+$5.20
ECON BOT
Win Rate
31.8%
Total Trades
22
Total P&L
-$34.73
RECENT SETTLED TRADES (LAST 10)
| SETTLED | BOT | TICKER | SIDE | CONTRACTS | ENTRY | RESULT | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.6 | yes | 7 | $0.64 | Win | +$2.52 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.7 | yes | 14 | $0.34 | Win | +$9.24 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.5 | yes | 5 | $0.86 | Win | +$0.70 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.4 | no | 16 | $0.31 | Loss | -$4.96 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.5 | no | 10 | $0.49 | Loss | -$4.90 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.7 | no | 8 | $0.59 | Loss | -$4.72 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.6 | yes | 18 | $0.27 | Win | +$13.14 |
| 2026-05-10 | Weather | KXLOWTOKC-26MAY07-T43 | yes | 32 | $0.61 | Loss | -$19.52 |
| 2026-04-30 | Weather | KXLOWTOKC-26APR29-T48 | yes | 20 | $0.66 | Win | +$6.80 |
| 2026-04-30 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26MAR-T0.2 | yes | 8 | $0.61 | Win | +$3.12 |
OPEN POSITIONS
| BOT | TICKER | SIDE | CONTRACTS | ENTRY | SUBMITTED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Econ | KXPCECORE-26FEB-T0.3 | no | 2 | $0.27 | 2026-03-21 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T3.5 | no | 6 | $0.80 | 2026-03-22 |
| Econ | KXPCECORE-26MAR-T0.2 | yes | 13 | $0.38 | 2026-03-22 |
| Econ | KXPCECORE-26MAR-T0.1 | yes | 7 | $0.71 | 2026-03-22 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.2 | no | 19 | $0.26 | 2026-03-29 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T2.8 | yes | 6 | $0.73 | 2026-03-30 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.0 | yes | 8 | $0.61 | 2026-03-30 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.8 | no | 12 | $0.41 | 2026-04-11 |
| Econ | KXPCECORE-26MAR-T0.2 | yes | 12 | $0.66 | 2026-04-15 |
| Econ | KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3 | no | 8 | $0.59 | 2026-04-24 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.7 | no | 10 | $0.48 | 2026-04-26 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.8 | no | 8 | $0.59 | 2026-04-26 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.9 | no | 7 | $0.71 | 2026-04-26 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.0 | no | 6 | $0.79 | 2026-04-26 |
| Econ | KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3 | no | 8 | $0.59 | 2026-04-26 |
| Econ | KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3 | no | 8 | $0.56 | 2026-05-09 |
| Econ | KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.2 | yes | 10 | $0.50 | 2026-05-11 |
| Econ | KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.1 | yes | 6 | $0.78 | 2026-05-11 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.0 | no | 35 | $0.14 | 2026-05-12 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.2 | no | 13 | $0.37 | 2026-05-12 |
HOW TO READ THIS PAGE
Every trade on this page is real. We show wins and losses. The strategy went through a learning phase (v1.0) and a major upgrade (v2.0) in April 2026. We keep both on record because we think transparency is how you build trust.
THE UPGRADE
v1.0 Lost. Here Is Exactly Why. Here Is Exactly What Changed.
Most of the early losses came from one bad default setting. The original bot had a minimum price of $0.05. That means it was buying penny contracts that needed to hit at near-lottery odds to win. Cheap contracts look appealing because the upside is big. But the win rate is brutal. v2.0 ships with completely different defaults.
v1.0 — Retired
- ✗Min price: $0.05 (penny longshots)
- ✗Single forecast system (GFS only, 31 members)
- ✗No agreement filter between models
- ✗No early exit (held positions to expiry)
- ✗Win rate: low
v2.0 — Current
- ✓Min price: $0.40 (high-probability contracts only)
- ✓4 independent forecast systems (164 members total)
- ✓Requires 3 of 4 ensembles to agree before trading
- ✓Early exit locks in 70% of max gain automatically
- ✓Building track record now — settlements public as they arrive
v2.0 live since April 2026. Settlement history updates after each contract expires. We show everything.
[2026-04-18] V2_STRATEGY min_price=0.40 ensembles=4 members=164
[2026-04-18] AGREEMENT_FILTER required=3_of_4 status=ACTIVE
[2026-04-18] EARLY_EXIT threshold=0.70 status=ACTIVE
[2026-04-18] NEXT_SETTLEMENT date=2026-05-13 market=CPI_YOY
[2026-04-18] TRACK_RECORD status=BUILDING_IN_PUBLIC
Next public settlement: May 13, 2026 — April CPI YoY. Bookmark this page.
CURRENT STRATEGY: v2.0
Live since April 17, 2026
The v2.0 bot runs a 4-source grand ensemble: NOAA GFS (31 members), NOAA AIGEFS AI-enhanced forecasts (31 members), ECMWF IFS (51 members), and ECMWF AIFS-ENS (51 members). A trade only fires when at least 3 of 4 systems agree. This is the same operational forecast data professional meteorologists use.
WEATHER BOT — v2.0 SUMMARY
Settled Trades
6
Wins
4
Losses
2
Win Rate
66.7%
Total Realized P&L
+$5.20
Average Win
+$8.18
Average Loss
-$13.76
Period
Apr 17 – May 6, 2026
WEATHER BOT — v2.0 TRADE LOG
| SETTLED | TICKER | SIDE | CONTRACTS | ENTRY | RESULT | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | KXHIGHTOKC-26APR17-T78 | YES | 20 | $0.50 | Win | +$10.00 |
| 2026-04-24 | KXLOWTOKC-26APR23-T65 | YES | 17 | $0.84 | Win | +$2.72 |
| 2026-04-26 | KXHIGHTOKC-26APR25-T80 | YES | 20 | $0.34 | Win | +$13.20 |
| 2026-04-29 | KXHIGHTDC-26APR28-T63 | YES | 20 | $0.40 | Loss | -$8.00 |
| 2026-04-30 | KXLOWTOKC-26APR29-T48 | YES | 20 | $0.66 | Win | +$6.80 |
| 2026-05-10 | KXLOWTOKC-26MAY07-T43 | YES | 32 | $0.61 | Loss | -$19.52 |
ECON BOT — v2.0 SUMMARY
Targeting Kalshi CPI and PCE inflation markets using Cleveland Fed nowcast + FRED macro signals. Strategy launched March 2026.
Settled Trades
5
Wins
3
Losses
2
Win Rate
60.0%
Total Realized P&L
+$1.41
Average Win
+$2.29
Average Loss
-$2.75
Period
Apr 9 – Apr 30, 2026
ECON BOT — SETTLED TRADE LOG
| SETTLED | TICKER | SIDE | CONTRACTS | ENTRY | RESULT | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T3.0 | NO | 50 | $0.10 | Loss | -$5.00 |
| 2026-04-09 | KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T3.0 | NO | 5 | $0.10 | Loss | -$0.50 |
| 2026-04-09 | KXPCECORE-26FEB-T0.4 | NO | 5 | $0.85 | Win | +$0.75 |
| 2026-04-10 | KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T3.4 | NO | 8 | $0.62 | Win | +$3.04 |
| 2026-04-30 | KXPCECORE-26MAR-T0.2 | YES | 8 | $0.61 | Win | +$3.12 |
ARCHIVED STRATEGY: v1.0
March 15 – April 12, 2026. Retired.
v1.0 used a single 31-member GFS ensemble with no ensemble agreement filter. It was our proof-of-concept phase. We ran it live, kept the results, and used what we learned to build v2.0. The win rate reflects an early-stage strategy, not the current one.
WEATHER BOT — v1.0 SUMMARY
Settled Trades
12
Wins
3
Losses
9
Win Rate
25.0%
Total Realized P&L
+$1.42
Average Win
+$3.25
Average Loss
-$0.92
Period
Mar 15 – Apr 12, 2026
WEATHER BOT — v1.0 TRADE LOG
| SETTLED | TICKER | SIDE | CONTRACTS | ENTRY | RESULT | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | KXHIGHTDC-26MAR15-T57 | YES | 7 | $0.13 | Loss | -$0.91 |
| 2026-03-19 | KXHIGHTDC-26MAR16-T76 | YES | 20 | $0.05 | Loss | -$1.00 |
| 2026-03-19 | KXHIGHTOKC-26MAR16-T45 | YES | 2 | $0.43 | Win | +$1.14 |
| 2026-03-19 | KXHIGHTDC-26MAR17-T42 | YES | 3 | $0.30 | Loss | -$0.90 |
| 2026-03-19 | KXHIGHTOKC-26MAR17-T64 | YES | 20 | $0.05 | Loss | -$1.00 |
| 2026-03-19 | KXLOWTNYC-26MAR18-T27 | YES | 2 | $0.40 | Loss | -$0.80 |
| 2026-03-31 | KXHIGHTDC-26MAR30-T68 | YES | 5 | $0.20 | Loss | -$1.00 |
| 2026-04-02 | KXLOWTNYC-26APR01-T59 | YES | 4 | $0.22 | Loss | -$0.88 |
| 2026-04-02 | KXHIGHTOKC-26APR01-T81 | YES | 1 | $0.20 | Win | +$0.80 |
| 2026-04-04 | KXLOWTNYC-26APR03-T43 | YES | 4 | $0.24 | Loss | -$0.96 |
| 2026-04-10 | KXLOWTNYC-26APR09-T37 | YES | 3 | $0.29 | Loss | -$0.87 |
| 2026-04-14 | KXHIGHTDC-26APR13-T85 | YES | 20 | $0.61 | Win | +$7.80 |
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
Results update as trades settle. The econ bot has 42 open positions across April and May CPI and PCE releases. Those will appear here automatically once the government data drops and Kalshi settles the markets.
The weather bot runs daily scans and places trades when the ensemble agreement and edge thresholds are met. New trades appear here within 24 hours of settlement.
Full source code available at predictandprofit.gumroad.com. Questions? Use the contact form at predictandprofit.io/about.