Live Trade Results
Last updated: August 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC. All trades placed autonomously by bot. No manual intervention.
TRANSPARENT BOT TRACKING
What This Results Page Shows
This page is the public trade ledger for the Predict & Profit automated trading bots. It summarizes settled and open positions from the weather bot and the inflation bot, including market ticker, side, contract count, entry price, result, and realized P&L when a market has settled.
The goal is not to present a cherry-picked marketing snapshot. The page keeps wins, losses, retired strategy versions, and current open positions visible so the system can be evaluated honestly over time. Performance varies by market regime, data quality, liquidity, and execution price. Future results are not guaranteed.
The live feed is updated from the trading database every day at noon ET, and settled trades are reflected after Kalshi markets resolve. That cadence makes this page useful as a running audit trail: it shows what the bots actually did, not what a backtest says they might have done.
DAILY LIVE FEED
Updated every day at noon ET from live database. Last updated: August 12, 2026 at 4:00 PM UTC
WEATHER BOT (v2)
Win Rate
58.3%
Total Trades
115
Total P&L
-$34.77
ECON BOT
Win Rate
60.4%
Total Trades
48
Total P&L
+$82.60
WEATHER BOT (v1, retired)
Win Rate
25.0%
Total Trades
12
Total P&L
+$1.42
SETTLED TRADES
Apr 9, 2026 – Aug 12, 2026
| SETTLED | BOT | TICKER | SIDE | CONTRACTS | ENTRY | RESULT | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Weather | KXLOWTLV-26AUG11-T87 | no | 14 | $0.35 | Loss | -$4.90 |
| 2026-08-12 | Weather | KXLOWTPHIL-26AUG11-T75 | yes | 20 | $0.14 | Loss | -$2.80 |
| 2026-08-11 | Weather | KXLOWTPHX-26AUG10-T90 | yes | 13 | $0.25 | Loss | -$3.25 |
| 2026-08-11 | Weather | KXLOWTSATX-26AUG10-T78 | no | 6 | $0.74 | Win | +$1.56 |
| 2026-08-09 | Weather | KXLOWTDAL-26AUG08-T81 | no | 6 | $0.74 | Loss | -$4.44 |
| 2026-08-09 | Weather | KXLOWTSATX-26AUG08-T77 | no | 6 | $0.73 | Win | +$1.62 |
| 2026-08-09 | Weather | KXLOWTPHIL-26AUG08-T76 | no | 8 | $0.62 | Win | +$3.04 |
| 2026-08-08 | Weather | KXLOWTBOS-26AUG07-T75 | no | 13 | $0.38 | Loss | -$4.94 |
| 2026-08-05 | Weather | KXLOWTCHI-26AUG04-T65 | no | 13 | $0.21 | Loss | -$2.73 |
| 2026-08-05 | Weather | KXLOWTDEN-26AUG04-T56 | yes | 1 | $0.18 | Win | +$0.82 |
| 2026-08-04 | Weather | KXLOWTPHIL-26AUG03-T76 | no | 6 | $0.73 | Win | +$1.62 |
| 2026-08-03 | Weather | KXLOWTAUS-26AUG02-T72 | no | 6 | $0.77 | Win | +$1.38 |
| 2026-07-30 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.3 | yes | 3 | $0.23 | Loss | -$0.69 |
| 2026-07-30 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.2 | yes | 6 | $0.56 | Loss | -$3.36 |
| 2026-07-30 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26JUN-T0.1 | yes | 5 | $0.82 | Loss | -$4.10 |
| 2026-07-28 | Weather | KXLOWTDEN-26JUL27-T69 | no | 1 | $0.58 | Win | +$0.42 |
| 2026-07-28 | Weather | KXLOWTOKC-26JUL27-T71 | no | 1 | $0.85 | Win | +$0.15 |
| 2026-07-27 | Weather | KXLOWTSFO-26JUL26-T60 | no | 1 | $0.73 | Win | +$0.27 |
| 2026-07-25 | Weather | KXLOWTSFO-26JUL24-T59 | no | 3 | $0.29 | Loss | -$0.87 |
| 2026-07-23 | Weather | KXHIGHTSFO-26JUL22-T74 | yes | 1 | $0.60 | Loss | -$0.60 |
| 2026-07-22 | Weather | KXLOWTPHIL-26JUL21-T72 | no | 2 | $0.38 | Loss | -$0.76 |
| 2026-07-22 | Weather | KXHIGHTSFO-26JUL21-T82 | no | 1 | $0.69 | Loss | -$0.69 |
| 2026-07-19 | Weather | KXLOWTPHIL-26JUL18-T73 | no | 1 | $0.70 | Loss | -$0.70 |
| 2026-07-18 | Weather | KXLOWTNOLA-26JUL17-T78 | yes | 3 | $0.25 | Win | +$2.25 |
| 2026-07-17 | Weather | KXLOWTCHI-26JUL16-T77 | no | 2 | $0.41 | Loss | -$0.82 |
| 2026-07-16 | Weather | KXLOWTAUS-26JUL15-T74 | no | 1 | $0.60 | Win | +$0.40 |
| 2026-07-16 | Weather | KXLOWTOKC-26JUL15-T70 | yes | 2 | $0.34 | Loss | -$0.68 |
| 2026-07-15 | Weather | KXLOWTLV-26JUL14-T86 | no | 2 | $0.45 | Loss | -$0.90 |
| 2026-07-14 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.9 | yes | 6 | $0.48 | Loss | -$2.88 |
| 2026-07-14 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.1 | yes | 7 | $0.19 | Loss | -$1.33 |
| 2026-07-14 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T4.0 | yes | 16 | $0.27 | Loss | -$4.32 |
| 2026-07-13 | Weather | KXHIGHTMIN-26JUL12-T91 | no | 2 | $0.38 | Loss | -$0.76 |
| 2026-07-13 | Weather | KXLOWTOKC-26JUL12-T68 | no | 1 | $0.56 | Win | +$0.44 |
| 2026-07-13 | Weather | KXLOWTDAL-26JUL12-T73 | no | 1 | $0.87 | Win | +$0.13 |
| 2026-07-12 | Weather | KXLOWTDEN-26JUL11-T56 | no | 1 | $0.69 | Win | +$0.31 |
| 2026-07-12 | Weather | KXLOWTOKC-26JUL11-T72 | no | 1 | $0.66 | Win | +$0.34 |
| 2026-07-11 | Weather | KXLOWTAUS-26JUL10-T71 | no | 2 | $0.41 | Loss | -$0.82 |
| 2026-07-11 | Weather | KXLOWTPHIL-26JUL10-T73 | no | 2 | $0.50 | Loss | -$1.00 |
| 2026-07-09 | Weather | KXLOWTCHI-26JUL08-T68 | yes | 2 | $0.41 | Loss | -$0.82 |
| 2026-07-08 | Weather | KXLOWTMIN-26JUL07-T69 | yes | 1 | $0.56 | Loss | -$0.56 |
| 2026-07-08 | Weather | KXLOWTOKC-26JUL07-T71 | yes | 3 | $0.32 | Win | +$2.04 |
| 2026-07-07 | Weather | KXLOWTDC-26JUL06-T75 | no | 2 | $0.39 | Loss | -$0.78 |
| 2026-07-07 | Weather | KXLOWTLV-26JUL06-T82 | no | 1 | $0.58 | Loss | -$0.58 |
| 2026-07-06 | Weather | KXLOWTDAL-26JUL05-T74 | no | 2 | $0.47 | Win | +$1.06 |
| 2026-07-05 | Weather | KXLOWTPHIL-26JUL04-T76 | no | 1 | $0.49 | Win | +$0.51 |
| 2026-07-05 | Weather | KXLOWTDEN-26JUL04-T57 | no | 1 | $0.82 | Win | +$0.18 |
| 2026-07-05 | Weather | KXLOWTOKC-26JUL04-T69 | no | 1 | $0.85 | Loss | -$0.85 |
| 2026-07-05 | Weather | KXLOWTCHI-26JUL04-T68 | no | 2 | $0.44 | Win | +$1.12 |
| 2026-07-03 | Weather | KXLOWTLV-26JUL02-T75 | no | 2 | $0.46 | Loss | -$0.92 |
| 2026-07-03 | Weather | KXHIGHTSFO-26JUL02-T71 | no | 1 | $0.55 | Win | +$0.45 |
| 2026-07-03 | Weather | KXLOWTDEN-26JUL02-T53 | no | 1 | $0.71 | Win | +$0.29 |
| 2026-07-01 | Weather | KXLOWTDEN-26JUN30-T54 | no | 3 | $0.28 | Loss | -$0.84 |
| 2026-07-01 | Weather | KXHIGHTSFO-26JUN30-T73 | no | 1 | $0.54 | Win | +$0.46 |
| 2026-06-30 | Weather | KXLOWTCHI-26JUN29-T77 | no | 1 | $0.70 | Win | +$0.30 |
| 2026-06-30 | Weather | KXLOWTLV-26JUN29-T72 | no | 1 | $0.62 | Win | +$0.38 |
| 2026-06-30 | Weather | KXHIGHTMIN-26JUN29-T94 | yes | 3 | $0.30 | Win | +$2.10 |
| 2026-06-29 | Weather | KXLOWTOKC-26JUN28-T72 | no | 1 | $0.85 | Win | +$0.15 |
| 2026-06-29 | Weather | KXLOWTDEN-26JUN28-T56 | no | 1 | $0.51 | Win | +$0.49 |
| 2026-06-29 | Weather | KXLOWTMIN-26JUN28-T66 | yes | 1 | $0.56 | Loss | -$0.56 |
| 2026-06-29 | Weather | KXHIGHTSFO-26JUN28-T73 | no | 1 | $0.58 | Loss | -$0.58 |
| 2026-06-25 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.2 | yes | 10 | $0.50 | Win | +$5.00 |
| 2026-06-25 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.1 | yes | 6 | $0.78 | Win | +$1.32 |
| 2026-06-20 | Weather | KXLOWTDEN-26JUN19-T54 | no | 1 | $0.63 | Win | +$0.37 |
| 2026-06-19 | Weather | KXHIGHTSFO-26JUN18-T73 | no | 1 | $0.90 | Win | +$0.10 |
| 2026-06-18 | Weather | KXLOWTDEN-26JUN17-T59 | no | 1 | $0.74 | Loss | -$0.74 |
| 2026-06-17 | Weather | KXLOWTDEN-26JUN16-T50 | no | 3 | $0.31 | Loss | -$0.93 |
| 2026-06-17 | Weather | KXHIGHTSEA-26JUN16-T74 | yes | 1 | $0.61 | Loss | -$0.61 |
| 2026-06-16 | Weather | KXLOWTLV-26JUN15-T82 | no | 3 | $0.27 | Win | +$2.19 |
| 2026-06-16 | Weather | KXHIGHTOKC-26JUN15-T84 | no | 1 | $0.52 | Win | +$0.48 |
| 2026-06-15 | Weather | KXLOWTPHIL-26JUN14-T67 | yes | 1 | $0.73 | Win | +$0.27 |
| 2026-06-15 | Weather | KXLOWTDAL-26JUN14-T70 | no | 1 | $0.59 | Win | +$0.41 |
| 2026-06-14 | Weather | KXHIGHTSEA-26JUN13-T85 | no | 1 | $0.86 | Win | +$0.14 |
| 2026-06-14 | Weather | KXLOWTDC-26JUN13-T69 | yes | 1 | $0.63 | Win | +$0.37 |
| 2026-06-14 | Weather | KXLOWTOKC-26JUN13-T69 | no | 1 | $0.66 | Win | +$0.34 |
| 2026-06-10 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.2 | no | 13 | $0.37 | Win | +$8.19 |
| 2026-06-10 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.0 | no | 35 | $0.14 | Loss | -$4.90 |
| 2026-06-10 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.9 | no | 7 | $0.71 | Loss | -$4.97 |
| 2026-06-10 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.0 | no | 6 | $0.79 | Loss | -$4.74 |
| 2026-06-10 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.1 | no | 50 | $0.10 | Loss | -$5.00 |
| 2026-06-10 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.8 | no | 8 | $0.59 | Loss | -$4.72 |
| 2026-06-10 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.7 | no | 10 | $0.48 | Loss | -$4.80 |
| 2026-06-05 | Weather | KXHIGHTOKC-26JUN04-T89 | no | 9 | $0.56 | Loss | -$5.04 |
| 2026-06-04 | Weather | KXHIGHTSFO-26JUN03-T73 | no | 10 | $0.74 | Win | +$2.60 |
| 2026-06-03 | Weather | KXHIGHTNOLA-26JUN02-T87 | yes | 25 | $0.26 | Loss | -$6.50 |
| 2026-06-02 | Weather | KXLOWTNYC-26JUN01-T54 | no | 12 | $0.67 | Loss | -$8.04 |
| 2026-06-01 | Weather | KXLOWTLV-26MAY31-T70 | no | 11 | $0.55 | Loss | -$6.05 |
| 2026-05-31 | Weather | KXLOWTMIN-26MAY30-T65 | yes | 8 | $0.56 | Win | +$3.52 |
| 2026-05-31 | Weather | KXLOWTDEN-26MAY30-T48 | no | 9 | $0.74 | Win | +$2.34 |
| 2026-05-31 | Weather | KXLOWTNYC-26MAY30-T52 | no | 11 | $0.65 | Loss | -$7.15 |
| 2026-05-31 | Weather | KXLOWTCHI-26MAY30-T58 | yes | 6 | $0.62 | Loss | -$3.72 |
| 2026-05-30 | Weather | KXLOWTLV-26MAY29-T63 | no | 9 | $0.69 | Win | +$2.79 |
| 2026-05-30 | Weather | KXHIGHTSEA-26MAY29-T59 | yes | 12 | $0.47 | Loss | -$5.64 |
| 2026-05-29 | Weather | KXLOWTNYC-26MAY28-T59 | no | 8 | $0.75 | Win | +$2.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | Weather | KXHIGHTNOLA-26MAY28-T86 | no | 11 | $0.54 | Loss | -$5.94 |
| 2026-05-29 | Weather | KXLOWTDEN-26MAY28-T50 | no | 10 | $0.70 | Win | +$3.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | Weather | KXLOWTAUS-26MAY28-T65 | no | 14 | $0.60 | Loss | -$8.40 |
| 2026-05-28 | Weather | KXHIGHTSFO-26MAY27-T69 | no | 11 | $0.75 | Loss | -$8.25 |
| 2026-05-28 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3 | no | 8 | $0.59 | Win | +$3.28 |
| 2026-05-28 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.2 | yes | 6 | $0.75 | Loss | -$4.50 |
| 2026-05-28 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3 | no | 8 | $0.59 | Win | +$3.28 |
| 2026-05-28 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26APR-T0.3 | no | 8 | $0.56 | Win | +$3.52 |
| 2026-05-27 | Weather | KXLOWTAUS-26MAY26-T64 | no | 8 | $0.74 | Win | +$2.08 |
| 2026-05-27 | Weather | KXHIGHTMIN-26MAY26-T89 | yes | 10 | $0.56 | Win | +$4.40 |
| 2026-05-27 | Weather | KXLOWTDEN-26MAY26-T56 | yes | 8 | $0.41 | Loss | -$3.28 |
| 2026-05-27 | Weather | KXLOWTLAX-26MAY26-T58 | yes | 7 | $0.32 | Loss | -$2.24 |
| 2026-05-26 | Weather | KXHIGHTSFO-26MAY25-T67 | no | 13 | $0.62 | Win | +$4.94 |
| 2026-05-25 | Weather | KXLOWTAUS-26MAY24-T63 | no | 13 | $0.74 | Win | +$3.38 |
| 2026-05-25 | Weather | KXHIGHTHOU-26MAY24-T86 | no | 3 | $0.50 | Win | +$1.51 |
| 2026-05-25 | Weather | KXHIGHTNOLA-26MAY24-T80 | yes | 7 | $0.69 | Win | +$2.17 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.2 | no | 19 | $0.26 | Loss | -$4.94 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.8 | no | 12 | $0.41 | Win | +$7.08 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.0 | yes | 8 | $0.61 | Win | +$3.12 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T2.8 | yes | 6 | $0.73 | Win | +$1.62 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.6 | yes | 18 | $0.27 | Win | +$13.14 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.7 | no | 8 | $0.59 | Loss | -$4.72 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.5 | no | 10 | $0.49 | Loss | -$4.90 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.4 | no | 16 | $0.31 | Loss | -$4.96 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.5 | yes | 5 | $0.86 | Win | +$0.70 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.7 | yes | 14 | $0.34 | Win | +$9.24 |
| 2026-05-12 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26APR-T3.6 | yes | 7 | $0.64 | Win | +$2.52 |
| 2026-04-30 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26MAR-T0.1 | yes | 7 | $0.71 | Win | +$2.03 |
| 2026-04-30 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26MAR-T0.2 | yes | 12 | $0.66 | Win | +$4.08 |
| 2026-04-30 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26MAR-T0.2 | yes | 13 | $0.38 | Win | +$8.06 |
| 2026-04-30 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26MAR-T0.2 | yes | 8 | $0.61 | Win | +$3.12 |
| 2026-04-10 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T3.4 | no | 8 | $0.62 | Win | +$3.04 |
| 2026-04-09 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T3.0 | no | 5 | $0.10 | Loss | -$0.50 |
| 2026-04-09 | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T3.0 | no | 50 | $0.10 | Loss | -$5.00 |
| 2026-04-09 | Econ | KXPCECORE-26FEB-T0.4 | no | 5 | $0.85 | Win | +$0.75 |
| OPEN | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.2 | no | 7 | $0.64 | Win | +$2.52 |
| OPEN | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.0 | no | 14 | $0.35 | Win | +$9.10 |
| OPEN | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.1 | no | 9 | $0.54 | Win | +$4.14 |
| OPEN | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.5 | no | 22 | $0.22 | Win | +$17.16 |
| OPEN | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.6 | no | 12 | $0.39 | Win | +$7.32 |
| OPEN | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.8 | no | 9 | $0.53 | Win | +$4.23 |
| OPEN | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T4.0 | no | 6 | $0.73 | Win | +$1.62 |
| OPEN | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.9 | no | 7 | $0.64 | Win | +$2.52 |
| OPEN | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.7 | no | 13 | $0.38 | Win | +$8.06 |
| OPEN | Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAY-T3.9 | no | 23 | $0.21 | Win | +$18.17 |
OPEN POSITIONS
| BOT | TICKER | SIDE | CONTRACTS | ENTRY | SUBMITTED |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather | KXLOWTSATX-26AUG12-T78 | no | 12 | $0.40 | 2026-08-11 |
| Weather | KXHIGHTBOS-26AUG12-T83 | no | 12 | $0.40 | 2026-08-11 |
| Econ | KXPCECORE-26FEB-T0.3 | no | 2 | $0.27 | 2026-03-21 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26MAR-T3.5 | no | 6 | $0.80 | 2026-03-22 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.5 | no | 22.11 | $0.16 | 2026-07-05 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.6 | no | 2 | $0.56 | 2026-07-05 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.7 | yes | 38 | $0.11 | 2026-07-09 |
| Econ | KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.2 | yes | 8 | $0.58 | 2026-07-14 |
| Econ | KXPCECORE-26JUL-T0.3 | yes | 10 | $0.21 | 2026-07-14 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.4 | yes | 8 | $0.60 | 2026-07-14 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T3.3 | no | 6 | $0.14 | 2026-07-30 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.2 | yes | 4 | $0.85 | 2026-08-01 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.3 | yes | 4 | $0.58 | 2026-08-02 |
| Econ | KXCPIYOY-26AUG-T3.2 | no | 12 | $0.11 | 2026-08-05 |
HOW TO READ THIS PAGE
Every trade on this page is real. We show wins and losses. The strategy went through a learning phase (v1.0), the v2.0 and v2.01 upgrades in April 2026, the v2.2 reliability release in May 2026, the v2.3 V2 API migration in June 2026, and the v2.5 forecast model replacement in August 2026. Trades settled before v2.5 were priced by the model that release removed. We keep each phase on record because we think transparency is how you build trust.
THE UPGRADE
v1.0 Lost. Here Is Exactly Why. Here Is Exactly What Changed.
Most of the early losses came from one bad default setting. The original bot had a minimum price of $0.05. That means it was buying penny contracts that needed to hit at near-lottery odds to win. Cheap contracts look appealing because the upside is big. The v2.x releases moved the system toward stricter filters, broader inputs, and more accurate accounting.
v1.0 — Retired
- ✗Min price: $0.05 (penny longshots)
- ✗Single forecast system (GFS only, 31 members)
- ✗No agreement filter between models
- ✗No early exit (held positions to expiry)
- ✗Win rate: low
v2.01 — Upgrade
- ✓Added the multi-system grand ensemble (replaced in v2.5)
- ✓Added the inflation bot for CPI and PCE markets
- ✓Added early exits for defined profit-taking
- ✓Added the 3-of-4 agreement filter (replaced in v2.5)
v2.5 — Current
- ✓Replaced the member-counting model with NOAA NBM station guidance
- ✓Skips same-day markets rather than pricing them badly
- ✓Records Kalshi fees in the ledger, paper trading included
- ✓Fixed partial fills never settling, and closes never being recorded
- ✓Rebuilt dashboard visibility across six read-only tabs
v2.5 shipped August 2026. Settlement history updates after each contract expires. We show everything, including the model we removed for underperforming.
[2026-05-16] V2_2_RELEASE reliability=active dashboard=enabled
[2026-05-16] ORDER_ACCOUNTING submitted_orders!=confirmed_fills
[2026-05-16] NO_SIDE_WEATHER_EDGES routing=enabled
[2026-05-16] DATA_SOURCE_DISABLED logging=explicit
[2026-05-16] SETTLEMENT_TRACKING status=reconciled
Live results, including wins and losses, remain public after each settlement. No trade is counted until it is confirmed filled.
CURRENT STRATEGY: v2.5
Live since August 2026
The v2.5 weather bot prices contracts from NOAA's National Blend of Models, the calibrated station-level guidance published for the stations Kalshi settles against. It skips same-day markets, because NBM coverage begins 24 hours out and the bot declines to price what it cannot price. It supports YES and NO candidates, logs failed data sources explicitly, and only counts confirmed fills as trades.
The model it replaced counted agreement across four raw ensemble systems. Measured across 112 settled trades it scored a Brier of 0.2858 against 0.2439 for predicting the base rate, so it was removed. Trades on this page that settled before August 2026 were priced by that model.
The v2.5 econ bot targets Kalshi CPI and PCE inflation markets using Cleveland Fed nowcast and FRED macro signals. It tracks submitted orders separately from confirmed fills before updating budget, P&L, open positions, settlements, or kill-switch state.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
Results update as trades settle. The econ bot currently has 12 open positions across upcoming CPI and PCE releases. Those will appear here automatically once the government data drops and Kalshi settles the markets.
The weather bot runs daily scans and places trades when the ensemble agreement and edge thresholds are met. New trades appear here within 24 hours of settlement.
Full source code available at predictandprofit.gumroad.com. Questions? Use the contact form at predictandprofit.io/about.